India will surpass China as world’s most populous country by mid-year, UN says

 

 India is set to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation, with almost 3 million more people by the middle of this year, data released by the United Nations on Wednesday showed.
Based on the projections, India’s population by mid-year will reach 1.4286 billion, compared to China’s 1.4257 billion – 2.9 million fewer – according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) “State of World Population Report” for 2023.
UN officials have said it is not possible to determine the exact date for the shift, due to “uncertainty” about the data coming from China and India. India’s last census was in 2011 and most recent, scheduled in 2021, was delayed during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The United States is a very distant third, with an estimated population of 340 million, the data, which reflects information available as of February, showed.
By 2050, eight countries will account for half the projected growth in global population: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania, according to the UNFPA report.
China has held the distinction of most populous country since at least 1950, when the UN population records began.
China and India together will account for more than a third of the estimated global population, which is expected to hit 8.045 billion by mid-year, the UN report said. But, contrary to public perception, population growth has been slowing in both countries – particularly in China, which recorded a population decline for the first time in six decades last year.
China’s population fell in 2022 to 1.411 billion, down some 850,000 people from the previous year, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The birth rate also fell to a record low of 6.77 births per 1,000 people, down from 7.52 a year earlier and the lowest level since the founding of Communist China in 1949.
India overtaking China will have significant economic implications for both Asian giants. Along with the flagging population data, China also reported one of its worst economic growth numbers in nearly half a century last year, underscoring the steep challenges the country faces as its labor force shrinks and the ranks of the retired swell.
Beijing’s leaders have sought to downplay the significance of being overtaken by India.
“A country’s demographic dividend depends not only on the total number, but also on the quality; not only on the population, but also on the talent,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters Wednesday when asked about the latest UN projection.