Boris Johnson is on his way to Brussels to take his Brexit victory lap. As well he might: He's achieved something he'd been told was impossible and has agreed a new Brexit deal with the EU Commission, replacing the thrice-defeated arrangement Theresa May struck with Europe last year.
Crucially, it revolves around a new arrangement for Northern Ireland that allows him to declare that he has got rid of the "backstop," the hated fallback position that kept the whole of the UK tied to the EU customs area.
But let's not get carried away. As he swept out of Downing Street this morning, Johnson left no small amount of chaos in his wake.
Like May, Johnson appears to not have secured the support of his Northern Irish allies, the Democratic Unionist Party. And as May found out, no DUP means defeat and humiliation in the British Parliament.
The DUP issued a statement before news broke that a deal had been done, saying that "as things stand, we cannot support what being suggested." Minutes ago, they confirmed that statement still pertains.
So why has Johnson agreed a deal without the nod from the DUP? It's entirely possible that Johnson is attempting to bounce the them into supporting him, for fear of what might follow.
If Johnson's deal fails in Parliament, it's very likely that it will trigger a series of events that could lead to a general election. That, in turn, could lead to a new government less sympathetic to the DUP's will.
But, as Theresa May found out the hard way, the DUP doesn't really play games. And without the DUP's support, Johnson could find his own party turning on him.
He's moved a long way towards Brussels during his short period in office. In doing so he has secured a new Brexit deal tha. But he may also have expedited his ejection from office, and in doing so, sealed his fate as the shortest-serving Prime Minister in British history.
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